It was too close to call last night (Sunday night) and the election commission (IFE, Instituto Federal Electoral) asked everyone (i.e. candidates, parties and media) to refrain from speculating on the winner. The PAN and PRI went along, but the PRD (Obrador's party) paid lip service, and then said "however", and proceded to claim victory. That was at 8. All the TV stations refrained and said that what the PRD did was irresponsible, etc. At 11, the IFE was supposed to have a statistical winner based on a preliminary count, but it was still too close to call, and they said they would have to wait until Wed to actually count all the votes, and again asked that everyone refrain from speculating. The PRI refrained (the old Partido Revolucionario Insitutional, how’s that for an oxymoron); the TV stations refrained; and then Obrador himself came on and said he had won by 500,000 votes, and if he lost it would probably be because of cheating by PAN and the old guard. Then PAN, who had refrained at 8 PM, came on and said that all the polls said that they had won, and that the votes actually counted so far also showed they were winning. At that point the TV started talking numbers too, and things started getting scary, as Obrador went from the TV studio straight to the Zocalo in México City to rally his supporters in the main square of the country, making veiled threats if he was denied the presidency. Fortunately, it was raining in Mexico City and enthusiasm was somewhat muted.
This morning (Monday), the PAN had even more votes and these are now openly talked about in the newspapers, etc., despite the election commission's request. So much for calm and restraint. Obrador seems to have toned down his threats a little this morning, but his people are ready to hit the streets if he loses, and he is not doing much to help to calm the situation. The left had the election stolen from them in 1988 and Obrador lost the governorship in Veracruz in the 80s too, and then marched to Mexico City on foot with thousands of sympathizers. They feel victimized and in the past they were.
They were unfairly attacked by PAN who said that Obrador would be like Chavez of Venezuela (and in fact, Obrador had received verbal support from Chavez so it was easy to believe). But Calderon was attacked by the PRD at the last debates for having a "cuñado incomodo", unfortunate brother-in-law, and when challenged to show proof of the cuñado's dealings, they turned over three large file boxes to much press coverage and photo-ops. But it turned out the boxes were virtually empty. Pretty funny, actually.
The PRD may be justified in being skeptical, but there is nothing so far to show that there is any reason to be skeptical. The election commission, IFE, was set up by all the parties in the early 90s to prevent just such election theft and has run the cleanest most transparent election they have ever had in Mexico, and probably all of Latin America, for that matter. Obrador should be supporting this and the growing maturity of Mexican democracy, instead of casting aspersions. He may yet do so, but he is not terribly responsible, I am afraid.
Because the election is so close, the IFE decided on Monday or maybe Sunday evening, to hold a recount of the “actas”, the tally sheets from each voting precinct, over 130,000 or so, beginning on Wednesday. This was before any of the parties had asked for it and shows how transparent and non-partisan the commission is, at least in my opinion. They have to come up with a final tally by next Sunday, or a week after the election. Their system and the people running it, from every indication I have had from TV and the responsible newspapers, is better than our system, which is controlled by politicians at the state and local levels with all kinds of payoffs going on behind the scenes (a la Florida). México also is governed by one man/woman one vote, unlike in the US. We have 50 different systems, México has one that everyone knows.
Last night (Wed) I checked the IFE website, http://elecciones.nuevoexcelsior.com.mx/excelsior.php, and it showed Obrador winning with 88% of the vote counted. I couldn’t figure it out, since the last I heard, 98% of the vote had been counted and Calderon was ahead. Of course, it was the recount figures I was looking at, not the preliminary vote count which was 100% complete at that point. Calderon had won the preliminary count by about 400,000 votes, but with the recount he was behind again. How could that be?
According to today’s paper, El Universal, the only really world class paper in Mexico, Obrador’s party had been intentionally dragging out the recount by making demands and holding demonstrations at the precincts. The reason was that they wanted to put off counting votes from places where Calderon was strongest in hopes of leading in the vote for as long as possible. And they did lead until late that night.
By 10 or 11 last night the vote from these areas started coming in and little by little Calderon started catching up. He was still behind when I went to bed at midnight, though. Of course, the folks in Mexico City who supported Obrador were all excited early on and were sure they had won and that this just proved that the preliminary count had been riddled with fraud as Obrador had said in the Zocalo on Sunday evening. By 4 AM, however, they saw Calderon leading and were certain that they had been robbed again, and they were ready to hit the streets. It was a fairly cynical attempt by Obrador to rally the troups.
Everyone is still giving lip service to not playing politics with the numbers until a final count, but all the parties are doing it. The final count, barring legal challenges that Obrador has promised and that will prevent a final decision until September or later, showed Calderon about 180,000 votes ahead, which is conceivably within the range of error, although after the second count this seems unlikely.
To give you an idea of how the election has worked, here are some pictures of the “actas” or tally sheets that have been posted outside every polling place. These are from in front of the Teatro de la Republica where the Méxican constitution was written, and where we have spent the last couple of evenings at events of one sort or another. They show the totals for that precinct and are agreed to and signed by all the major party observers who were present at the count, including the PRD, Obrador’s party.
After the count, the ballots are sealed in boxes, and the “actas” are attached to a smaller box on the outside of the corresponding ballot box. Everything is sealed and signed by all concerned to assure that no ballots go “missing”.The rules provide that the only time the original ballots can be opened is if there are discrepancies on the actas or if the ballots have been appealed for one reason or another during the original count and set aside for further study, etc. On Sunday, about 2.5 million votes were set aside and had to be recounted later (the “missing ballots” that Obrador accused the other parties of stealing.) The count that started on Wed was only of the exterior boxes with the actas, as signed and posted at each precinct. The ballot boxes themselves cannot be opened until and unless the courts require a vote by vote recount. In fact, it is illegal to open the ballot boxes prior to such a challenge. These guys know about fraud.
Nevertheless, Obrador and a group of American “observers” are insisting that they be opened to satisfy the concerns of the losers before an appeal has actually been made. The Americans are playing their old games of “we know best, so do as we say, and screw your local laws” which just ticks people off in other countries, especially in México which has a much better system than we do and where we had the Florida fiasco, which Mexicans always bring up in such arguments. In effect, the PRD is asking, like they did on Sunday, that the rules now be changed to satisfy them. The IFE is correctly sticking to their guns, and by doing so, showing that finally México is really becoming a mature, democracy.
Tonight (Thurs) we went to an award ceremony at the Teatro de la Republica. Christiane got tickets through her “culture classes”. We were, needless to say, the only gringos there (again). The award is given out yearly and this year was given to a historian and political scientist (of the right wing persuasion), but who is known and respected by all sides. While I was feeling a little under dressed in my guayabera (what else to wear to a Mexican award ceremony, I thought), the awardee, Enrique Krauze gave a very good talk on the true meaning of democracy. He quickly got into the election, and I winced figuring I was in for a right wing rant. But he pointed out that the IFE had done a remarkable job compared to the historic precedents and that the parties (PRD and PAN) needed to stop second guessing and let the process play out as it is supposed to. I felt vindicated, and despite the guayabera, I applauded wildly. I guess it will be on national TV tonight, the speech, not my guayabera.
Did Calderon win? We should know by September, but in the meantime, the Peso is rising and the Dollar is dropping, and the house we can afford is getting smaller and smaller. Now if Obrador had won, . . . . but that's another story.
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